At the start of her tenure in 2019, President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen promised to turn the EU into a “geopolitical force” to be reckoned with. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 proved to be the perfect opportunity to embrace and develop the EU’s geopolitical role, as it caused tectonic shifts in the global geopolitical landscape.
Russia’s brutal aggression, reimposing all-out war on the European continent, disrupted the law-based international order. It evoked swift responses by the EU in liaison with other international players. The immediate imposition of sanctions after February 24, 2022, in close cooperation with the US and other partners, undoubtedly surprised Putin. After adopting a total of 13 sanctions packages, their implementation is now high on the EU agenda.
Considerable economic and political support has been provided to war-torn Ukraine by the EU. Economic support, encompassing support for refugees, humanitarian aid, military support, and direct help to Ukraine’s economy approached €100 billion in 2023. Political support involved Ukraine receiving EU candidate status in 2022 and the decision to start membership negotiations in December 2023. Military support is ongoing, with another four-year package having been approved in late 2023. The EU should not relent in its efforts to ensure that Ukraine wins the war on its terms and takes its rightful place as a member of the EU and NATO as soon as that becomes possible. The EU faces challenges in foreign, security, and defense policy that will not only define the future of Ukrainians. Meeting the challenges will also help the EU to be recognized as a serious geopolitical player, which in turn is closely linked to Ukraine’s success on the battlefield.
Russia’s war has exposed the EU’s urgent need to produce military equipment and ammunition and ramp up the production of EU industrial defense capabilities. In parallel, the Rapid Deployment Capacity of EU troops needs to be achieved by focusing on force generation through exercises and participation in operations. There is a need to develop and to diversify the European supply chain with a focus on moving it geographically closer to the front line.
Latvia is of the opinion that these measures will contribute to the EU’s geopolitical role and will therefore continue to insist on those points. The EU’s close cooperation with NATO and the US has kept the transatlantic link firm during the past few years. This link is also crucial to ensure a seamless and speedy reinforcement and transportation of equipment and troops across European borders in a crisis, and the EU focus on military mobility should be maintained. External EU and NATO borders have been subjected to hybrid war attacks by the authoritarian regimes in Belarus and Russia.
NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary at the Summit in Washington in July. The focus on the collective defense of Alliance territory and the implementation of plans in support of this policy will be high on the agenda. Strengthening “deterrence by denial” will be closely linked to this approach.
This year will be important for the future of Ukraine and the international rules-based order of which the EU is a fundamental part. European Parliamentary elections and changes to the next Commission should continue to increase the EU’s geopolitical clout. They should also improve the security of its citizens through a forceful foreign, defense, and security policy.
Andris Sprūds is Latvia’s Minister of Defense.
Imants Lieģis is advisor to the Minister of Defense.